A Deep Dive Into Our Tiny Recruitment Pool

The Australian Defence Force faces a tough reality—while many young Australians meet enlistment criteria, only 16% both qualify and express the desire to serve. Can recruitment keep up?

15/04/2025

<30 min

Abstract

The Australian Defence Force requires thousands of new recruits each year, most of whom are recruited from the target demographic of 17-24-year-old Australians. However, when national characteristics such as health, criminality and education are combined with the ADF’s own selection criteria and the willingness of individuals to join the military, the proportion of the target demographic eligible and willing to join diminishes substantially. It is estimated that just 16% of 17-24-year-olds are eligible and also have a propensity to join the ADF.

Introduction

Every year the Australian Defence Force (ADF) requires somewhere between 5,500 and 8,200 entrants for the permanent force, and an additional 2,300 for the Reserves, most of whom will have had no previous military service.^[1] Yet it perpetually struggles to reach this target, having never fully achieved its recruiting objective. With recent recruiting outcomes substantially below desired levels,^[2] it seems that recruiting up to 10,500 people from 2.8 million Australians in the recruiting demographic of 17-24-year-olds (and many more in older age groups), is a difficult endeavour.

In this article, the size of the Australian population is explored in more detail to determine how many 17-24-year-olds are eligible to join the ADF against the most basic of criteria and, of those, how many have the propensity (willingness or inclination) to join. This article does not explore the reasons why people don’t join, nor examine the competitiveness of the employment value proposition or delve into the impact of the Australian civil-military relationship on recruiting; it is simply an overview of the numbers available to join. This article aims to demonstrate that although the national population base is large, some characteristics of the population, combined with military selection criteria and propensity to join, substantially reduces this number, making the recruiting target deceptively difficult to obtain.

Article Limitations

The data used in this article are not necessarily from the same source and individuals are not identifiable at an individual level. As a result, it is likely that in some circumstances there will be overlaps, or interactions, between certain variables that cannot be quantified. For example, there may be a relationship between criminality and drug use. Because the variables are not adjusted for (unknown) interactions, there may be a tendency toward deeming more people ineligible for the ADF than is actually the case; however, this known error is minimised through a generous application of criteria whereby more people are assumed to be eligible than not when a range is available.

This article examines the eligibility and propensity to join for the 17-24-year-old age group, collectively referred to as the ‘typical recruiting demographic’. This age group is the most decisive demographic in achieving recruiting targets due to its size and high proportion concurrently looking to enter the workforce, with fewer disqualifying characteristics, and a high propensity to join. Since 2002, this group has accounted for 79% of ab initio (new) entrants into the permanent force.^[3] Recruiting from the 17-24-year-old age group dominates the opportunity for the ADF to meet the majority of its targets.

Method

In estimating the proportion of the national population who might be eligible to join the ADF, two groupings of criteria that reduce the size of the eligible pool are explored. First, those national characteristics of 17-24-year-old Australians that disqualify them from applying for any role in the ADF in the broadest sense are considered. These include physical or mental disability, macro-health concerns (as measured by a proxy of obesity), criminality, illicit drug use, and achievement of minimum eligibility education levels. Official data from government sources are available in each of these areas. There are other characteristics that could have been included in this first grouping; however, these five national characteristics represent the largest overall impact on reducing the size of the eligible population.

The second grouping comprises those internal ADF general selection criteria that further narrow and refine the eligibility of 17-24-year-olds over and above disqualifying national characteristics, and for which only ADF data exists. These include aptitude (including cognitive ability), specific medical suitability, psychological suitability, and the ability to achieve a security clearance. Again, there are other selection criteria; however, these four are the most influential in reducing the size of the eligible population.

Propensity to join is broadly defined as how likely a person is ‘to ever consider a job with the Navy, Army or Air Force’ and is the critical second dimension in determining the possible size of the population from which the ADF can potentially recruit.^[4] Propensity, normally sub-categorised by gender and age, is routinely obtained by Defence Force Recruiting (ADF Careers) through market research. Although the combination of national characteristics and internal selection criteria will help estimate the number of 17-24-year-olds eligible to join the ADF, this does not mean that they necessarily have a propensity to join. When the propensity to join is overlaid on eligibility figures, the proportion of the population that have both the eligibility and propensity to join can be obtained.

National Characteristics

Population size. The start-state in determining the proportion of 17-24-year-olds who may be eligible to join the ADF is understanding the size of this cohort. Using a mid-range projection (medium fertility, high life expectancy and medium net overseas migration), the population of Australian 17-24-year-olds in 2025 is estimated to be around 2.8 million, which is approximately 10% of the national population and comprised of 51% female. This number is projected to increase to 3.1 million before 2031 when it may comprise 10.5% of the national population before decreasing below 9% near 2050.^[5]

Diability Symbol - Person in a wheel chair

Disability. In 2022, 14.4% of males and 13.2% of females in the 15-24-year-old age group were reported as having a disability described as ‘… any limitation, restriction or impairment which restricts everyday activities and has lasted, or is likely to last, for six months or more’. This disability would normally deem a person ineligible to apply for a role in Defence. It has been noted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics that disability prevalence increased between 2018 and 2022, particularly in the typical recruiting demographic, and an estimate of 15% may also be plausible.^[6] For the purpose of this article, it is conservatively estimated that 13% of the population aged 17-24 are ineligible to join the ADF due to a disability.

Health. Relevant public health statistics for ADF eligibility are difficult to obtain; however, obesity may be used as a proxy due to its close association with a range of health conditions. In 2022, 42% of men and 41% of women were overweight or living with obesity (15% of men and 16% of women were obese). While being overweight or obese does not necessarily make a person ineligible to apply for the ADF, the likelihood that they will not meet the medical criteria for enlistment or appointment is substantially increased. In this article it is conservatively estimated that 20% of 17-24-year-olds are ineligible to apply due to a pre-existing health issue, not associated with disability, for which overweight or obesity is a proxy.^[7]

Crime - a person having a mug shot taken

Criminality. The youth crime rate in 2022/23 was reported as 1.8% or 1,847 in 100,000 persons between the ages of 10 and 17, although it is higher in males (2.4%) than females (1.2%).^[8] It was also substantially higher in 18-19-year-olds (3.2%) and in 20-24-year-olds (2.7%). Several simplifying assumptions in estimating ineligibility due to criminality are necessary. Firstly, it is assumed that the crime(s) committed deems a person ineligible to join Defence, which is normally the case. Secondly, it is optimistically assumed that there are high rates of recidivism/repeat offenders such that the figure for the crime rate does not accumulate additively over the time that a person is aged 10-24. For example, it is assumed that by the time a person is 24 years old, the accumulated likelihood of having committed a crime is not 7.7%.^[9] Overall, this article makes a conservative assumption that 2% of the population aged 17-24 are not eligible to join the ADF due to a criminal background, but this figure may actually be substantially higher.

Illicit drug use. In 2019 it was reported that 24% of Australians aged 14-24 had used illicit drugs in the preceding 12 months.^[10] The most commonly used illicit drugs were marijuana/cannabis, ecstasy and cocaine. Previous drug use does not necessarily deem a person ineligible for the ADF, particularly since up to 77% of 18-24-year-olds who reported using drugs did so out of curiosity; however, the use of ecstasy (7.6%) or cocaine (7.3%) would normally be of particular concern for suitability. This article estimates that previous use of illicit drugs would deem at least 5% of the population aged 17-24 ineligible to apply to join the ADF.

A mortarboard on a book - all crossed out

Education. The ADF requires at least a year 10 level of English and Mathematics to apply for some limited roles, although an increasing majority of roles require a higher level. In 2022, 90% of 20-24-year-olds had attained the national requirements for a qualification at year 12 or certificate III level or above, which included completion of year 10 English and Mathematics.^[11] The National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) also provides some information on literacy and numeracy levels up to year 9, indicating that 5% of Australian year 9 students are below the national minimum numeracy level, and 10% are below the minimum reading standard.^[12] This article estimates that at least 5% of the recruiting demographic do not have the minimum education requirements to apply for a role in the ADF but notes that this may be higher than 10% in some aspects of literacy.

Once these national characteristics are combined, the proportion of the Australian population aged 17-24 who may be eligible to apply for any role in the ADF is reduced to below 62%, as shown in figure 1. This means that even before the ADF applies its own selection criteria to this demographic, almost two-in-five people from the recruiting demographic cannot apply (or if they were to apply would likely not proceed beyond initial stages). This figure is optimistic as a more aggressive application of assumptions, discussed later, would result in even lower rates of eligibility. Significantly, with less than two-thirds of the national population exhibiting the baseline characteristics to even apply to join Defence, a competitive employment value proposition, and presence in the mind as a career option, become paramount in attracting the recruiting demographic to take the next step in applying for a role in the ADF.

ADF General Selection Criteria

A human Head with a cog and wires superimposed

Aptitude and cognitive ability. Aptitude and cognitive ability are assessed separately from educational attainment during the selection process. There is a small but significant proportion of applicants who meet many initial application criteria but do not meet the minimum requirements of an aptitude test. Although the ADF has changed its approach to testing, with the most recent change occurring in 2020, around 4% of applicants do not meet the minimum requirement for any role.^[13]

Medical suitability. In addition to ineligibility through disability or health (obesity) discussed earlier, many candidates are also found to be ineligible for Defence on other health-related grounds. The proportion of applicants unsuitable for any role on the basis of responses to a health questionnaire conducted during the recruiting process is around 11% (noting that many applicants withdraw from the recruiting process before completing the questionnaire).^[14] Of those who progress beyond the health questionnaire, a further 6% of candidates are later found to be unsuitable for a role. This article conservatively estimates that 11% of the applicant pool are unsuitable for any role in Defence, but acknowledges that this figure could be substantially higher as the medical suitability of those withdrawing their application before completion of the questionnaire is unknown.

Pych unfit - head with x for eyes and a wobbly mouth

Psychological suitability (Defence Interview outcome). Potential applicants are not usually screened for psychological suitability prior to making an application as this stage occurs as part of the recruiting process. In addition to psychological suitability, applicants also undertake a Defence Interview (job interview) for suitability. The outcome of this interview is, unsurprisingly, highly correlated with the psychological interview (ie applicants found to be psychologically unsuited are also found to be unsuitable by a Defence interviewer) such that inclusion of both metrics in this analysis is unnecessary. Around 10% of applicants do not meet the psychological requirements for any role in the ADF as assessed by a psychologist.^[15]

Security clearances. Increasingly, roles in the ADF require a checkable background in order to obtain the necessary security clearance. This is closely associated with an applicant’s citizenship status, and while there are avenues for some specific non-Australian citizens to apply, their background checks become increasingly difficult. An estimated 5% of applicants are unable to obtain the necessary security clearance for a role in the ADF either through a lack of supporting evidence or for another reason associated with their application itself.

Once all eligibility factors are combined (national characteristics and selection factors), around 45% of the national population of 17-24-year-olds remain eligible to join the ADF in some role. For ease of analysis, it is assumed that this comprises equal numbers of men and women.^[16] In the simplest of terms, this means that of the entire population of 17-24-year-old Australians, less than one-half are actually eligible to enlist, regardless of whether they want to or not. Significantly, this population is also likely to be in high demand for a range of other occupations in Australia that have similar selection criteria. The ADF is undeniably in a competitive market for a relatively small proportion of the eligible workforce, and yet again as mentioned earlier, a competitive employment proposition and visibility of job opportunities underscores the ability for the ADF to attract sufficient numbers from this demographic to apply.

Propensity

The propensity of the Australian population to join the military is measured through independent market research and can vary in response to a range of environmental factors. Individuals may actually be ineligible to join the ADF yet indicate a propensity to join, and vice versa. Males aged 25-34 have a higher propensity to join than 15-24-year-old males, but more social and opportunity-based constraints result in a lower likelihood of them acting on their higher propensity (and subsequently applying for the ADF).^[17] This is reflected in the relatively low proportion of 25-34-year-olds recruited into the ADF.^[18] At all ages, males have a higher propensity than females. Currently, the propensity to join for 17-24-year-old men and women is 46% and 25% respectively^[19] and it is assumed that the propensity applies equally to the entire demographic regardless of whether they may be eligible to join or not.^[20]

The combination of Eligibility and Propensity

Applying a propensity to join to eligible men and women results in a figure of just 16% of all 17-24- year-old Australians with both the eligibility and propensity to join the Australian Defence Force, or less than 450,000 of the 2.8 million people in this demographic, as shown in figure 1. Significantly, this figure is based on conservatively optimistic assumptions and the real-world scenario is likely to be substantially worse. When more aggressive and somewhat less conservative assumptions are applied to the national factors (disability 15%, health 25%, criminality 3%, drug use 7% and education 10%) and ADF selection criteria (aptitude 7%, medical 16%, psychological 11% and citizenship 5%), together with relatively low propensity of 42% and 21% for men and women respectively, it is possible that only 11% of the recruiting demographic have both the eligibility and propensity to join.

Sankey diagram showing textual content of the article in a visual medium

Figure 1. National Characteristics, Selection criteria and propensity affecting eligibility for the ADF.

This article has also made its analysis based on the eligibility of the Australian recruiting demographic for any role in the ADF with the minimum criteria. However, most applicants do not simply apply for any role, they apply for specific roles with defined selection criteria that further limit eligibility, many of which are also selective. For example, technical and submariner roles require higher aptitude and completion of year 12 (submariners require additional health attributes). Similarly, officer and pilot roles require high aptitude, completion of year 12, potential for leadership roles, and remain highly selective. In these simple examples, only a very small proportion of the recruiting demographic is eligible for the ADF. Therefore, 16% should not be interpreted as the proportion who may join the ADF; it is the generous upper limit of eligibility and propensity in the absence of further (disqualifying) selection criteria that may be relevant to those applicants applying for specific roles.

ADF’s levers and sensitivity

While many of the factors, such as obesity and criminality, are out of the ADF’s sphere of influence, it does have leverage over its own selection criteria and some influence on propensity through marketing, public profile and national sentiment. Opening the selection ‘aperture’ and the acceptance of greater levels of risk would increase the proportion eligible, but perhaps not to the extent necessary or desirable. Eligibility is more sensitive to the national factors, especially disability and health, than the ADF’s own criteria. For example, complete removal of all of the ADF’s specific selection criteria, while maintaining current propensity to join, would only result in an increase in the eligible population from 16% to 21%. Removing both the ADF’s selection criteria and improving propensity to 50% for both men and women would still only result in 31% of 17-24-year-olds being both eligible and with the propensity to join. This lack of sensitivity to the ADF’s selection criteria emphasises the significance of the national characteristics and supports a view that 16% could be considered a relatively constant and optimistic planning figure for the proportion of 17-24-year-old Australians who are both eligible and have the propensity to join the ADF.

Nevertheless, this does not mean that the ADF should avoid close examination of its selection criteria and its own influence over propensity to join. While the effect may be small in terms of overall proportion, opening the aperture around selection criteria would have an inevitable positive impact on eligibility. For example, improving medical ineligibility from 11% to 10% would increase the number of eligible 17-14-year-old Australians by over 14,000. Similarly, increasing the propensity to join by just 1 percentage point to 47% for males and 26% for females would add over 12,500 to those who are eligible and have the propensity to join. Successfully attracting even a small number from improvements such as these would contribute to a greater chance of achieving targets.

Conclusion

Not all people in the Australian recruiting demographic of 17-24-year-olds are eligible to join the Australian Defence Force, nor do they all possess the propensity or desire to join. When the various eligibility criteria for military service are overlaid against those who have the propensity to join, just 16% possess both the eligibility and propensity for service in the ADF. The use of more aggressive assumptions in the analysis suggest that this figure could be as low as 11%, and further selection criteria for specific roles that require greater levels of education, aptitude, health and potential for leadership would yield an even smaller proportion.

The relatively small proportion of Australian 17-24-year-olds eligible to the join the ADF, and who also possess the propensity to join, underscores the persistent difficulties experienced by the ADF in recruiting from this demographic. Broadening the ADF’s selection criteria may assist in some small way, but the overwhelming influence on eligibility is caused by national characteristics such as obesity, drug use, crime, and education, on which the ADF has little or no influence. Improvements in national sentiment toward the military that result in an increase in propensity to join may also assist in some small way, but the levers to do this are limited and would operate with a significant time delay. It may be an immoveable reality that the ADF will only ever be able to recruit from a relatively small proportion of the population, against which there is significant competition. Maintaining social legitimacy, offering a competitive employment value proposition, and instilling a presence in the minds of youth as a career option will remain essential in the ADF’s efforts toward recruiting for the future from a relatively small proportion of the eligible population.

Acknowledgments

The author wishes to acknowledge the support of Defence Force Recruiting/ADF Careers, in particular LTCOL Peter Scott, in the provision of key data and analysis used in this article.

Footnotes

¹ Recruiting targets vary in accordance with workforce growth requirements, strategic guidance and recruiting outcomes in previous years. Ab initio recruiting (no previous military service) accounts for 80% of the recruiting results with transfers from the reserves, re-enlistments, and overseas military transfers providing the remainder.

² Australian Government, Defence Annual Report 2023-24, (2024), p37. https://www.defence.gov.au/about/accessing-information/annual-reports

³ Source: PMKeyS. 25-to-34-year-olds comprise 17% of ab initio entrants. 35-to-44-year-olds comprise 3% and 45 to 60 year-olds comprise 1%.

⁴ Defence Force Recruiting, Hall and Partners

⁵ Australian Bureau of Statistics, ‘Population Projections, Australia, 2022-2071’, Data Explorer. https://dataexplorer.abs.gov.au/vis?fs[0]=People%2C1%7CPopulation%23POPULATION%23%7CPopulation%20Projections%23POP_PROJ%23&pg=0&fc=People&df[ds]=PEOPLE_TOPICS&df[id]=POP_PROJ&df[ag]=ABS&df[vs]=1.0.0&pd=2022%2C&dq=0.1%2B2%2B3.17%2B18%2B19%2BA20%2BTT.2.1.2.A&ly[cl]=SEX_ABS&ly[rs]=AGE&ly[rw]=TIME_PERIOD&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false

⁶ Australian Bureau of Statistics, ‘Disability, Ageing and Carers, Australia: Summary of Findings’, 4 July 2024, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/disability/disability-ageing-and-carers-australia-summary-findings/latest-release#disability

⁷ Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, ‘Overweight and obesity’, 17 June 2024, https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/overweight-obesity/overweight-and-obesity/contents/overweight-and-obesity

⁸ ABS Recorded Crime, Youth offenders https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-offenders/latest-release#youth-offenders

⁹ Derived from 1.8% for 10-17-year-olds, plus 3.2% for 18-19-year-olds, plus 2.7% for 20-24-year-olds.

¹⁰ Australian Bureau of Statistics, ‘Recorded Crime – Offenders’, 8 February 2024, https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/children-youth/alcohol-tobacco-and-other-drugs#drugs. And Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, ‘National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2019. Drug statistics series no. 32. Cat. no. PHE 270’, 17 September 2020. And Alcohol and Drug Foundation, ‘Young Australians, illicit drug use and harm reduction’, 29 May 2024, https://adf.org.au/reducing-risk/young-drug-use-harm-reduction/

¹¹ Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 7 September 2023, https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/primary-and-secondary-schooling.

¹² Australian Government, NAPLAN Results, Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority, https://www.acara.edu.au/reporting/national-report-on-schooling-in-australia/naplan-national-report-archive

¹³ Source: Defence Force Recruiting aptitude testing norming table (4.14%). In 2020, testing transitioned from a 20-point proctored test to an online test.

¹⁴ Source: Defence Force Recruiting figures for 1 Jun – 11 Oct 2024. Only includes figures for those who completed the medical health questionnaire and not those withdrawn from the recruiting pipeline prior to completion of the medical health questionnaire. It is assumed here that people self-identifying as obese in earlier eligibility would not apply for a role in Defence. The author acknowledges that the health questionnaire is under significant review.

¹⁵ Source: Defence Force Recruiting.

¹⁶ In reality, many of the eligibility factors including health, drug use, and criminality vary for men and women. However, a simplifying assumption that they are approximately the same was used in this analysis.

¹⁷ For example, 25-34-year-olds will be more likely than 17-24-yearolds to be married, have children, commenced an occupation or profession, have local social connections and family and other attributes that increase the real and opportunity costs of commencing a new career in the ADF.

¹⁸ Since 2002 less than 17% of ab initio entrants were aged 25-34. This increased to 18% in FY22/23 and FY23/24, and has been as high as 20% as recently as FY20/21, but remains comparatively lower than the 17-24-year-old demographic.

¹⁹ Source: Defence Force Recruiting. Figures at March 2024. Propensity has been as high as 54% for 17-24-year-old males and 30% for 17-24-year-old females, and as low as 42% and 21% respectively since 2018.

²⁰ Propensity to join is viewed as independent from eligibility to join such that a person that is clearly ineligible may still demonstrate a propensity to join. The impact of a person’s own knowledge of their ineligibility on their responses to questions around propensity is unknown but it is plausible that propensity will differ if a person is aware of selection and ineligibility criteria. Unfortunately the extent of this potential bias is not known.

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Within this area, Defence’s newest members will be exposed to the conflict spectrum and theories associated with its employment. While additional emphasis will be afforded to one’s own Service, consideration will be given to joint operations and planning processes. The topic will also include an exploration of current ADF operations and emerging technological impacts on future preparedness.

The ADF’s contribution to Australian National Power through shape, deter and respond activities will be understood in general terms. Tied with this awareness will be ADO roles and responsibilities, including civil-military relations. The importance of Defence’s contribution in this regard will be linked to a general sense of Australia’s strategic environment. Resource management fundamentals will help underpin responsible expenditure of Commonwealth funds.

All members of Defence will also need to be competent in military administration, ADF roles and structures, and undertake all initial mandatory training. This foundation will continue to develop in subsequent JPME levels and increasingly expand opportunites for Joint Stream (out-of-category) postings and roles. APS does not require core military skills.

Following on from their respective recruit or commissioning course, ADF personnel will commence their Initial Employment Training (IET). This period can include workplace experience and periods of on-the-job training.

Graduation from IET marks the formal transition from Level 1 to Level 2. It is at this point when they are considered effective in the workplace.

Defence members at this level will have a sound understanding of their own Service or domain warfare systems and capability. As they progress through Level 2, they will display a stronger understanding about the ADF’s holistic contribution to Joint Force warfighting domains. This will extend to the nature and theory of war, which has developed through an academic study of historical case studies and contemporary military issues. Importantly, such awareness will help inform their understanding of the impact of technology on current and future warfare. Awareness of gender perspectives on operations will contribute to their well-rounded application of the Profession of Arms.

By recognising the difference between complicated and complex problems, personnel at this level will ensure their problem-solving strategies and decision making are optimised. In the earlier stages, personnel will employ more transactional, linear thinking, decision support tools (such as the Joint Military Appreciation Process or variations) but they will increasingly apply alternate thinking strategies to seek more sophisticated options. Greater availability of human-machine teaming systems will progressively reduce our reliance on lower order cognitive activity and thus facilitate more nuanced considerations to complex problems.

Australia’s approach to the formulation of military strategy and its strategic environment (including international and geopolitical) will strengthen as members advance in this Level. Through both courses and experience, they will also acquire a stronger understanding of interagency strategies, policies and decision making processes.

As they progress through Level 2, Defence personnel will progressively develop awareness and then expertise beyond their initial employment category.

These broader systems and processes will expand to include one or more of the five key Joint Streams: Military Support, Operations, Capability Development and Delivery, Strategy Policy and Engagement, and Intelligence.

Within JPME Level 2, Defence personnel will become increasingly proficient in their initial employment category. Through both their formal courses (initial employment training and subsequent intermediate courses) and workplace experience, they will display competency in their contribution to military power. As they develop greater technical expertise, senior personnel at this level will become suitable for growing the next generation, by seeking instructional roles.

Those operating at this level will understand both internal Joint Force command relationships and international engagement with coalition partners. Their employment of operational art will consider instruments of national power and campaign design, while the relationship challenges between strategic, operational and tactical levels of war will be clearly understood. Continual professional development will keep Level 3 practitioners abreast of emerging trends and future warfare techniques. Expertise will be apparent in the planning requirements for force generation and the factors that shape the execution of joint operations. National and military strategic planning considerations for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous and Novel (VUCAN) environments will mature. Personnel will be increasingly aware of the influence technology has on current and future warfare as well as whole-of-government response options.

Those operating at this level will be increasingly comfortable with systems thinking to perceive and influence complex adaptive systems. Various alternative thinking strategies, such as Design Thinking and Multi-Criteria Decision Making, will allow them to thrive in the challenging multi-domain environment.

Importantly, they will be able to translate complex strategic issues into tangible ideas for their subordinates.

This level is noted for its integration of civil-military functions and instruments of national power. This includes strategy and public policy development as well as contemporary operating environments and implications for military and security forces. Awareness of both Joint and multinational logistics will complement resource management systems of the Joint Force.

Expertise in one or more of the Joint Streams specific processes will continue to develop with staff and/or leadership responsibilities aligning with roles held.

Examples of the advanced knowledge base likely to be demonstrated include: One Defence Capability System (or its successor) and FIC management, Joint Force staff roles, advanced Human Resources systems and processes, Whole of Government and international engagement approaches, as well as legislative requirements associated with the relevant Joint Stream.

Through more senior category appointments and opportunities, those at Level 3 will display expertise within their specialist category employment. Completion of charge courses, deployments, exercises and pre-command courses, personnel will increasingly expand their specialist expertise to support joint effects.

Increasing leadership expectations will develop within their category’s specialist vocation.

This level is recognised for its future Joint Force planning, development and sustainment challenges. Those operating in these positions will resolve military resource challenges and understand limitations of contracted support to operations. Operational artists will be adept at integrating strategic objectives to planning through the exploitation of emerging and non-traditional concepts for joint and multinational warfare. These skills will manifest in their ability to design and lead theatre strategies, campaigns and major operations. They will also be seeking opportunities to exploit technology’s influence on current and future warfare as well as its role in whole-of-government response options.

Cognitive performance will be enhanced through active seeking of diversity and a tolerance for ambiguity. Dealing with Defence-related wicked systems will be normal.

Problem-solving will increasingly accept increased risk to reflect the greater depth of wisdom and confidence in one’s judgments. This level is also noted for strategic thinking, visioning and championing a learning culture.

Level 4 leaders will be strong advocates of divergent thinking in their subordinates (when appropriate), to ensure Defence continues to improve systems and processes.

Those operating at this level have a very clear understanding of the impacts on national Defence policy and strategy. They will positively influence military capability development to enhance relevant instruments of national power. A strong awareness of contemporary global affairs and trends, combined with a deep understanding of international relations theories, will enhance their management of national military resources to support national security and foreign policy. Gender, peace and security impacts will continue to guide their strategic policy development.

Those operating at this level will be considered Generalists who possess a wide range of skills and expertise in multiple Joint Stream areas. With the exception of a select few specialists, these personnel will have actively sought out opportunities to broaden their versatility beyond their specialisation. Typical areas will include: strategic planning, civil-military relationships, campaign planning, strategic governance, business and financial acumen, One Defence Capability System leadership, strategic direction setting of emerging capabilities, policy leadership for future capability needs, and industry engagement for sustainment and growth.

At the enlisted level, Tier B and C warrant officers provide a vital link across the ADF, not only championing 75% of the ADF at the strategic table but also helping translate the top-down messaging. To do this, they must excel in understanding both worlds. Strategic level warrant officers also play a pivotal role in the command team relationship not only as advisors to decision-makers, but also in the strategic leadership of organisational culture, ongoing professional development, and the ideological underpinnings of the Profession of Arms throughout the ADF’s workforce

For those still in key roles within their primary category, there will be strong leadership expectations to ensure the delivery of capability, strategic advice on capabilities, limitations and future needs, as well as shaping the professional development system to grow future generations within the field.

Senior officers and their equivalents will be comfortable in crisis leadership situations across all aspects of Defence. They will be highly effective when commanding Joint Task Forces or conducting influence operations. This performance will come from a deep understanding of Joint Force attributes, structures, capability requirements, emerging concepts and risks affecting military strategies and campaign development. Their strategic leadership abilities will extend to synthesising operational lessons learned across all Force elements including deployment, employment and sustainment. All of these areas will be enhanced by their astute awareness of political and resource implications in joint warfare strategy and planning.

Multi-agency, political and global wicked systems are an expected reality of Level 5 roles. Those operating at this level will have the cognitive agility to respond comfortably with these challenges by exploiting paradigm shifting approaches (such as nudge theory) to improve systems to a more advantageous state.

Senior leaders at this level will be expert in strategic communication and information impacts. They will comfortably implement grand strategy through future-focused policy formulation and employment of armed forces. Their expertise in national intelligence community and architecture will help them influence national security and foreign policy. The implications of contemporary challenges on national security strategies will be understood. This depth of understanding will be drawn from a strong awareness of national powers’ characteristics, capabilities and limitations combined with the civil-military relations necessary to deliver national power instruments.

Senior officers and SES band public servants at the highest echelons will be skilled in decision cycles and information/knowledge management systems. They will understand Government processes for capability acquisition and how to exploit technology enablers within enterprise systems.

As leaders of Force Element Groups (FEGs) or Joint Task Forces (JTFs), senior military officers will integrate emerging capabilities and technology to both maintain force-in-being deterrence and deliver operations to meet Government response options. In policy and advisory roles, they will exploit emerging capabilities and technologies when shaping military strategy, policy development and implementation. Industry engagement will enhance support of sovereign capability and Australia’s economic prosperity

A Service Warrant Officer is a unique appointment within each Service, one of influence and advice rather than Command. E10 Warrant Officers have strategic leadership responsibilities as Command advisors to Senior Leadership of their Service to provide critical insight to key decisions through an alternative lived experience and with support from Senior Enlisted Personnel to give a balanced, informed and analysed perspective from the workforce.

They also play a pivotal role in the organisation’s leadership, able to utilise their professional knowledge and experience to provide context and make the complex simple and the simple compelling. The unique appointment ensures the Service WO stays connected to contemporise issues for the workforce and represent those gaps and opportunities at the appropriate delegated level.

Service Warrant Officers deliberately steward, communicate and are genuinely dedicated to their Service; while always supporting strategic organisation culture and setting the conditions for long-term success.

Service Warrant Officers have a concurrent liability to foster relationships supporting Australia’s national power through networking and encouraging active engagement with counterparts to promote a commonality of purpose: – Friendship, Partnership and Leadership.

Defence Mastery

Own Domain Awareness defence-poa-level1

Own Domain Mastery Joint Awareness defence-poa-level2

National and Military Power awareness defence-nsps-level1

Operational Planning Military Science defence-nsps-level2

Technical Mastery

Basic Military Skills tech-corems-level1

General ADF Knowledge and Skills tech-corems-level2

Initial Employment Competence tech-ecat-level1

Advanced Specialisation tech-ecat-level2

Social Mastery

Lead Self social-influence-level1

Lead Teams Lead Leaders social-influence-level2

Conceptual Frameworks Defence Values social-ethics-level1

Resilient Moral Identity social-character-level1

Trust Development Through Consistency social-character-level2

Culture Alignment social-culture-level1

Diversity Appreciation social-culture-level2

Biography

Phillip Hoglin CSC

Colonel

Colonel Phillip Hoglin graduated from the Royal Military College Duntroon in 1994, having completed a Bachelor of Science (Honours) majoring in statistics at the Australian Defence Force Academy in 1993. In 2004 he completed a Master of Science in Management (Manpower Systems Analysis) through the United States Postgraduate School and in 2012 a Master of Philosophy (Statistics) through the University of New South Wales. He has had several appointments in workforce analysis, policy, strategy, management and Defence Force Recruiting.