The Australian Government is very active on many fronts, including Defence. The relatively recent realisation that the world is heading to a great geostrategic reset, leading to a new world order, has raised the anxiety of politicians, agriculturalists, miners, industrialists and the military. Both the transition and the new geostrategic state are potentially inimical to Australia’s interests and sovereignty, making the work of ‘thinking strategically’ urgent.
This article explores the concept of ‘strategic thinking’. It provides a model for those who are urgently grappling with the current geostrategic turbulence and trying to find a path through it, and a place in the emerging order. This article does not directly consider Australia’s circumstances or strategic thinking. The model offers assistance to those who need to develop and assess their own strategies and the strategies of others.
The Macquarie Dictionary defines ‘strategy’ as: noun: 1. a plan which is devised to achieve a particular outcome. 2. a cunning plan involving skilful management in getting the better of an adversary or attaining an end; ‘stratagem’. 3. also, chiefly US, strategics. a. generalship; the science or art of combining and employing the means of war in planning and directing large military movements and operations. b. the use, or a particular use, of this science or art. From the Greek stratēgia generalship.
‘Thinking’ is defined as: an adjective: 1. capable of thought; able to reason. 2. thoughtful; reflective: any thinking person would agree. As a noun; 3. thought; reflection. 4. opinion; judgement: to indicate one's thinking on the subject. And as a phrase; 5. to put on one's thinking cap. Colloquially to reflect upon or consider a matter; cogitate.
In contrast, no definition exists for ‘thinking strategically’.
In actuality, ‘thinking strategically’ and ‘strategy’ are thought of, studied, considered and used as a practice, a product, a narrative, a problem resolution approach, a collective process and as a theory. A summary of these ideas is below.
- Strategy as a practice. Strategy as a practice is often described in competitive terms, most often using analogies based on games. An example is the ‘The Great Game’, a historical rivalry between Russia and Great Britain in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The game analogy is complicated by the existence of two types of games—finite and infinite. Chess is a good representation of the former, while Go is illustrative of the latter. The differences lead to a binary view. Finite games are tightly bounded, winner-takes-all contests, contain fixed rules and have an obvious end. In contrast, infinite games are loosely coupled, create states of relative advantage, contain changing or contested rules and the end may not be obvious. Of the two, infinite games best reflect life.
- Strategy as a product. As a product, a strategy is easy to find. The product will contain the word ‘strategy’ in the title. Strategies will often be built around Lykke’s ‘Ends-Ways-Means’ model. Lykke developed the model due to the unique circumstances of the 1980s, as the American Army rebuilt after the failures identified in the Vietnam War. Lykke used the model to teach students strategy, at their War College. The model has been criticised, but is in wide usage in the Australian Department of Defence and Australian Defence Force.
- Strategy as a narrative. As a narrative, a strategy is used to tell a story in a future tense. The telling is often from the perspective of the leading character. Strategy as a narrative is viable, since man is a storytelling being with a deep psychological and spiritual embrace of folk tales, myths, parables, dreamings and beliefs. Effective narratives contain characters, plotlines, morals (biases and values) and an ending point or goal that can be used to influence people as individuals and/or as a collective. Narratives are very popular at the moment. Narrative as a strategy is particularly evident in the ‘woke’ and ‘climate changers’ efforts to remake the world, and the Anglo-American-European view of the conflict in Ukraine. The issue with narratives is that their value is based on how closely they match reality. Reality matching is an activity which exposes false narratives while highlighting core truths.
- Strategy as a collective process. Thinking strategically can also be used as a collective process, especially in business, where goals and purpose are translated into feasible actions that lead to desired consequences. An example of a collective process is the strategy to unite the German principalities, cities and kingdoms into a new state, under Prussian tutelage. The close cooperation of Roon, the architect of the army; Moltke, the director of operations; and Bismarck, the diplomat and statesman, created the conditions for success. That cooperation was acknowledged by Wilhelm I at a victory dinner after the defeat of France in 1870. As with most successful enterprises, the Prussians were blessed with a combination of good people, circumstances and some luck.
- Strategy as an approach to problem resolution. For many people and organisations ‘thinking strategically’ is used to help resolve problems. As a problem-solving approach, the crux of a problem hinges on understanding the problem itself, defining the ‘essential achievement’ and seeking ways to gain the most impact at the lowest cost. Within organisations, ‘vertical strategic coherence’ is of value since ‘vertical coherence’ avoids dissonance, distraction and waste. An example of vertical coherence was the Prussian ‘way of war’. As Moltke said, ‘no plan survives first contact’, and as such he had his staff ensure the troops were moved to ‘jump off’ points efficiently, while he taught his forces to effectively use ‘double envelopment’ to destroy ‘field armies’. Moltke also said that the objective could not be provided beforehand. His reasoning was that the political situation is constantly evolving, but ultimately politics would define the focus and limits of action. The difference between solving a problem and undertaking a strategy development task can be quite subtle.
- Strategy as a theory of success. Finally ‘thinking strategically’ can also be considered a theory. Meisner, in Hoffman’s The Missing Element in the Crafting of National Strategy – A theory of Success, considered that defining strategy as a theory of a success is a must. As a ‘success theory’, creativity is encouraged while keeping the process grounded in reality. In line with strategy as a theory, we can conceive of strategy as an ‘applied theory’ that articulates a ‘theory of success’, which, as noted by Gray, makes a ‘planner’ a ‘theorist’. By becoming a theory, the implicit becomes explicit, rhapsodic prose becomes pragmatic plans, and those plans can be tested, refined and adapted as the situation changes. (As an aside, it would be more correct to call it a ‘hypothesis’, since there is no guarantee that the strategy will succeed, nor necessarily be predictive.)
A ‘Thinking Strategically’ Model. The development of a ‘thinking strategically’ model based on the idea that strategy can be conceived as a theory has great appeal. Additionally, treating strategy as a problem resolution approach and as a collective process easily leads to the notion that strategy should be viewed as a theory of success, and thus modelled. The appeal is driven by the ability to codify, integrate and harmonise good ideas and its ability to be presented visually. The combination of elements provides the model’s framework and following explanation.
The model provides a visual guide to the key elements that make up a ‘Thinking Strategically’ model. The model can be used to support those embarking on the journey of learning to think strategically, undertaking a strategic thinking task or analysing others’ strategies. Understanding other strategies without a framework is much more difficult than is necessary. The process offered helps discern facts which are evaluated against the current norms, leading to action and thus modified norms, so that future experiences will be evaluated differently. In fact, with the plethora of ‘strategies’ about, a model makes the analysis task so much easier and also allows quick side-by-side comparison.
Within the vast body of strategic knowledge, we can see the elements of a model. Ideas such as a context, lines of effort, the Wéltanschauung or ‘worldview’ of key actors, and a ‘test of success’ help ‘strategic thinking practitioners’. Here the Lykke model is modified but incorporated because of its utility. In a political-military context, the inclusion of additional elements such as Wéltanschauung helps to ensure that the ‘right adversary’ is engaged at the ‘right time’, in the ‘right place’, in the ‘right proportions’, in the ‘right way’ and for the ‘right reason’ and ‘right purpose’.In a civil-business context, ‘adversary’ could be changed out for ‘competitors’. As for a ‘test of success’, simply incorporating standard military descriptors such as ‘feasible, acceptable, suitable, distinguishable’ would suffice. Other terms or elements, such as ‘sustainable’, ‘adaptable’ and ‘consequences’ could be added if necessary or desired. Alternatively, a series of questions that are tightly connected might also work. Questions such as: Does the strategy achieve the result desired? Will the strategy yield success with the lowest cost in blood, sweat and treasure? Will success be achieved in the shortest time? Significantly, a new idea is incorporated, that of a ‘guiding compass’. A ‘guiding compass’ points out the direction that needs to be followed and helps avoid excessive, unwarranted and dangerous deviation.
The model begins at the top with the ideas of ‘Subsidiarity’, ‘Conundrum’ and ‘Self-synchronisation’. The three sit under the title as guiding ideas for organisations that value command by task/intent, encourage the use of dilemmas or conundrums against a foe whether military or civilian, and prompt subordinates to work towards a goal, often with little, poor or no guidance or direction.
As for the definition, ‘thinking strategically is an art, supported by science, to combine elements in the most advantageous way, to achieve a goal in the shortest time and at minimal cost’. The definition is designed to emphasise the human dimension, the search for suitable elements, the costs involved and, optimally, to draw out creativity. Much as the unique artistic creativity of Da Vinci’s and Pollack produced the Mona Lisa and Blue Poles, even though they used essentially the same oil paints and canvas. As with masterpieces, creativity is not common. So, templates and models are provided to consolidate hard-learned lessons, to teach and to guide. However, template solutions often lead to pedestrian products, which achieve pedestrian results. The choice is between being a ‘painter by numbers’ or an ‘inspired master’.
The model nests ideas, actions and behaviours within a Context and Worldview. Both the context and worldviews of those who are audiences, protagonists or antagonists need to be considered, reflected on, discussed and understood to maximise the actions advocated or directed by the strategy. Elements such as ‘big idea’ have been abandoned and replaced by the concept of a ‘Guiding Compass’. The compass acts as a ‘guide in the wilderness of the future’ and provides a means to ground the thinking process. In some cases, a ‘guiding compass’ encourages a spiritual element to emerge. Sound ‘guiding compasses’ help to ensure that less than godly or downright evil choices are avoided. For example, a sound ‘guiding compass’ may have helped the Germans avoid the catastrophe of World War 2.
Strategy as a problem-solving tool is heavily emphasised in higher military colleges, businesses and various institutions. The idea of ‘a problem to be solved’ remains in the model but is downplayed. Problem resolution is really about shifting from an undesired or obsolete state to a desired future one. So, if you consider an ‘as is’ position to reflect ‘Today’ and the ‘to be’ position to be the state you’d like to see ‘Tomorrow’, a problem can be solved using this framework. Lykke’s ‘Ends’ is divided into Outcomes and Purpose (or aim would suffice)—effectively ‘what’ and ‘why’. Identifying a purpose or goal that needs to be achieved encourages a result-oriented perspective. However, both positive and negative outcomes need to be identified and weighed. Ignoring negative outcomes doesn’t make them go away.
‘Ways and Means’ remain and are well documented in various public and private publications and thinking aids. The ways and means are tightly coupled to the lines of effort and they should be expressed in terms of ‘scope-cost-schedule’, which can be further divided into ‘work/action packages’ leading to the identification of a ‘critical path’. The use of project management technique adds thinking discipline. Within Australia, using the 4Es (effective, efficient, economic and ethical) brings Commonwealth procurement guidelines on the use of resources into a practitioner’s mind and allows subsequent assessment of the ‘proper use’ or ‘value for money’ of any actions. 4Es is a useful test, and in some respects unethical strategies seem to fail.
The ‘Context’ box is very important, since nothing happens in a vacuum. Vickers’ considered that the situation is always changing due to the interaction of actor and events over time, making the situation relatively unstable; but those actor-event interactions needs to be accounted for. Considering the context encourages the consideration of the nature of the conflict, its historic background, the physical and electronic domains, the seasonal attributes, the psycho-spiritual nature of the people and escalatory dominance, to name a few factors which influence a strategy. One way to consider the context is to conduct a Cynefin assessment, though other tools are available. The Cynefin framework posits that situations can be chaotic, complex, complicated, ordered or disordered. During chaotic, complicated or disordered situations, running experiments or using tools like the Boyd Cycle (OODA loop) as both a decision and learning tool to conduct ‘thought experiments’ is vital. For Cynefin assessments to be valid, care needs to be taken to achieve ‘situational stability’. A situation could move from one quadrant to another faster than it can be understood or for actions take effect, so experiments must be run at a rate commensurate with the situation, not at a speed of your preference, otherwise a model will be of little help. The context factors, though similar to those in the Lines of Effort, are not the same. The idea of lines of effort are well documented elsewhere, though here ‘ideation’ replaces ‘information’ since the battle of ideas appears to be a better fit. In essence, lines of effort link ‘ways’, ‘means’ and ‘outcomes’ to ‘purpose’. They are not discussed further, except to note the significance of defining them, at least initially, in terms of scope-cost-schedule. The lines of effort may also be used to achieve deceptive, distractive or disrupting outcomes.
Luck, chance and deception are elements that are rarely discussed in strategic texts. Luck favours the brave and the prepared and is of such importance that Napoleon first wanted ‘lucky’ generals, stating that competence came next. What Napoleon seems to be saying about luck was that ‘lucky generals’ have the ‘coup d'œil’, which he defined as, ‘ a gift of being able to see at a glance the possibilities offered by the terrain … One can call it the coup d'œil militaire and it is inborn in great generals.’ Individuals only get it with experience, with practice and repetitive training. Chance cannot be underestimated. Most would think through chance using risk management concepts, which would probably be adequate. Care needs to be taken when one gambles, much like in a casino. While deception can be self-generated or prompted by outside forces.
As for ‘worldview’ or ‘Wéltanschauung’, it is an idea borrowed from ‘soft systems’. A ‘worldview’ captures a person’s or group’s conceptions, philosophy or view of the world. An understanding of the worldviews of the actors and audiences that will be confronted by the strategy is critical to understanding the situation from multiple perspectives. Multiple perspectives will be especially important during civilisational clashes. Depending on the situation, everything is ‘lawful’ and ‘right’ in its time and place. For those who appreciate models, the Vickers Appreciation model is inspirational when considering Wéltanschauung. Much of Vickers’ work is devoted to the analysis of judgement in terms of what he called ‘appreciative behaviour’. Vickers published his thoughts in The Art of Judgement in 1965. He believed that social institutions are best analysed as systems, and his published work, Human Systems are Different, contributes to systems and strategic thinking.
As for the scientific and mathematical elements of strategy, these are the most neglected parts of a strategic practitioner’s tool kit. For those involved in national strategy, a useful start point is the Composite Index of National Capabilities (CINC). The index is a measure of national power formulated by J.D. Singer in 1963 for the Correlations of War project. The index uses the averages of the percentages of global totals in six categories. The categories represent each state’s economic, military and demographic shares of the global totals. As a formula, CINC=(TPR+UPR+ISPR+ECR+MER+MPR)/6 is effectively a ratio of a country to the world. The variables are: TPR=total population of a country ratio, UPR=urban population of a country ratio, ISPR=iron and steel production of a country ratio, ECR=primary energy consumption ratio, MER=military expenditure ratio, MPR=military personnel ratio. The correlation highlights the negative consequences of deindustrialisation. Other strategic domains will require other tools to provide the scientific and mathematical underpinnings of the art of strategy.
Notes of caution: Perception-fact mismatches, freak events, jumping to the endgame and reckless disregard for the order of operations are some of the serious faults that strategic practitioners can fall into. One of the most common faults is that of ‘perception-fact’ mismatch highlighted by a misunderstanding of the variation between what is stated and what the actual behaviour is. The difference is essentially between a lie and the truth, which confuses and misguides. Propaganda (often called information actions/operations) is a key tool that deceives. Propaganda is a well-developed field with a scientific basis and a broad toolset to mislead. Differentiating the perception-fact mismatch is difficult due to people’s immersion in propaganda that aims to mobilise local opinions, persuade neutrals and undermine adversary legitimacy or alternate opinions. Relying on a narrow range of media, influencers and politicians will likely lead to groupthink. Freak events such as ‘black swans’ and ‘grey rhinos’ that may be looming on the horizon are heavily influenced by confirmation or other bias, leading to each data-point confirming what is wanted to be seen. As with experimentation, the eye should be on the elements that disprove, not confirm. Having the endgame sorted must be backed by sound calculus and an algorithm capturing branches and sequels. The branches and sequels cannot be left to their own devices. As for order of operations, there is a critical path that cannot be avoided. Project management offers the idea of work packages that must be resources— or as the military says, ‘troops to tasks’ A strategic thinker or practitioner needs the intellectual, moral and spiritual strength to search to attain discernment. Discernment of the actual actions or behaviours that will be undertaken is often obfuscated in strategic products. Using the framework or model will assist in developing or identifying the true strategy. A hint: the lines of effort are likely to be the real behaviours.
In conclusion, strategic thinking has become vitally important due to the strategic turbulence. The world is resetting and a new order is emerging, which may not be as benign as it has been in the past. Strategy development has been thought of, studied, considered and used as a practice, a product, a narrative, a problem resolution approach, a collective process and as a theory. Of the six ideas, strategy as a theory of success lends itself to codification and offers structured support to learning, development and analysis of strategies. The model provided captures the essential elements that were discerned from some of the many strategic texts that are available. Probably the most critical element of the model is the idea of a ‘guiding compass’, without which it is difficult to maintain focus, encourage subsidiarity, support self-synchronisation and create conundrums for an adversary. In essence, strategies and tactics do not change; situations change, means change, and the combinations change. Thus, the way the model is applied must be adjusted to the task, rather than slavishly applied to avoid the common problem of rhapsodic prose, ‘slick talkers’ and procrastinators. The process offered helps discern facts which are evaluated against the norms, leading to action and modified norms so that future experiences will be evaluated differently. As such, the model provides segments and guide rails to support logic and reason during the development or analysis of a strategy.
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Cognitive Bias List: Common Types of Bias (verywellmind.com) accessed 25/01/2023
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Major Thomas Basan enlisted in January 1980. As a soldier and non-commissioned officer, Major Basan served in 2nd/4th Battalion Royal Australian Regiment and Special Air Service Regiment. On commissioning, Major Basan commanded paratroopers in 3rd Battalion Royal Australian Regiment (Parachute) at platoon, specialist platoon and company. Major Basan is a graduate of the Australian Command and Staff College and the Army Technical Staff Officer Course. He has also gained a master’s in systems engineering. In later years, Major Basan served in Future Land Warfare, Army Headquarters; Land Development and the Australian Defence Test and Evaluation Organisation, Capability Development Group; Brigade Major, 13 Brigade and Preparedness and Land Capability Development, Army Headquarters. Major Basan has retired from the Regular Army, but remains in the Reserves.
1 A Defence Strategic Review is underway, with a final report due in March 2023. An interim report was provided to Government in November 2022, but was not released to the public.
2 The decline in Anglo-American-European influence and rise of a Eurasian security and economic community is coupled with the expansion of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to a BRICS+ organisation. The shifting relative power equation is creating turbulence as the fading powers are resisting the rising security and economic power centres.
3 This is often referred to as ‘threats to the ‘rules’ based order emanating from Russia and China.
4 Macquarie Dictionary.
5 Course: Thinking Strategically (2022-S2) (adele.edu.au) The course was run over the period 26 September to 9 December at the Australian Defence College, Weston Creek, ACT. The convenor was: Dr Michael Hatherell ( firstname.lastname@example.org) The course broke strategy into those six types.
6 Great Game - Wikipedia and New Great Game in the Caucasus and Central Asia – Asia Times accessed 25/01/2023
7 Finite and Infinite Games - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
8 Chess - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
9 Go (game) - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
10 Beyond Ends, Ways, and Means: We Need a Better Strategic Framework to Win in an Era of Great Power Competition - Modern War Institute (usma.edu) accessed 25/01/2023
11 A narrative approach to Strategy as Practice: strategy making from texts and narratives (Chapter 12) - Cambridge Handbook of Strategy as Practice accessed 25/01/2023
12 Narrative - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
15 Both climate change and woke narrative contain kernels of truth, wrapped in many untruths and are resistant to debate. In effect propaganda is being employed to coerce compliance, acceptance and approval. As with the conflict in Ukraine, discerning the truth is no simple matter.
16 Perception Is Not Reality | Psychology Today accessed 25/01/2023
17 The traditional strategy process - strategy making in the past (themanager.org) accessed 25/01/2023
18 Albrecht von Roon - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
19 Helmuth von Moltke the Elder - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
20 Otto von Bismarck - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
21 William I, German Emperor - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
22 Fridman, O., (ed), 2021, Strategiya, C. Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd. p 105, ISBN 9781787384842 ‘Strategiya’ sheds light on the roots of Russian strategic and military thought. The book places current operations in a historic light.
23 Problem solving techniques: Steps and methods (deakin.edu.au) accessed 25/01/2023
24 Rumelt, R., 2022, Crux: How Leaders Become Strategist, Profile Trade, ISBN 978-1788169509
25 Rumelt, R., 2017, Good Strategy/Bad Strategy: The difference and why it matters, Profile Trade, ISBN 978-1781256176
26 Helmuth von Moltke the Elder - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 Moltke is one of the greatest generals in history. He guided the Prussian Army to victory against Austria, Denmark and France which lead to the creation of the German Empire. He is regarded as the creator of the modern method of directing armies in the field. He is often described as the embodiment of "Prussian military organization and tactical genius".
27 Battle of Cannae - Wikipedia The Battle of Cannae was a key engagement of the Second Punic War between Rome and Carthage. The battle was fought on 2 August 216 BC near Cannae in Apulia. The Carthaginians were led by Hannibal. They surrounded and annihilated the larger Roman force under the consuls Lucius Aemilius Paullus and Gaius Terentius Varro. It is regarded as one of the greatest tactical feats in military history and one of the worst defeats in Roman history. By modern times Cannae acquired a mythic quality, and is often used as an example of the perfect defeat of an enemy army. Cannae was the model embraced by Moltke.
28 Dupuy, T., 1984. A Genius for War: the German Army and General Staff 1807–1945. Fairfax, VA: Hero Books. ISBN 978-0-915979-02-8
29 Theory is a noun. It is defined as: 1 - A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena. 2 - The branch of a science or art consisting of its explanatory statements, accepted principles, and methods of analysis, as opposed to practice. 3 - A set of theorems that constitute a systematic view of a branch of mathematics.
30 The Missing Element in Crafting National Strategy: A Theory of Success > Institute for National Strategic Studies > News (ndu.edu) accessed 25/01/2023
32 Hypothesis - Wikipedia accessed 25/0102023
33 Worldview - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023Wéltanschauung is the fundamental cognitive orientation of an individual or society encompassing the whole of the individual's or society's knowledge, culture, and point of view. The term ‘worldview’ is a ‘calque’ of the German word Wéltanschauung.
34 On Wars, Battles, and Military Operations: Defining Success | The Vineyard of the Saker accessed 24/10/2022
36 Fridman, O., (ed), 2021, Strategiya,
37 On Wars, Battles, and Military Operations: Defining Success | The Vineyard of the Saker accessed 24/10/2022.
38 Ibid. The author, M. Tajik provides an excellent description of ‘guiding compass’ and its moral link.
39 Subsidiarity - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023. Subsidiarity is a principle of social organization that holds that social and political issues should be dealt with at the most immediate or local level that is consistent with their resolution. Subsidiarity is the foundation of mission command or ‘Führen mit Auftrag’.
40 The three formed the core of some work I participated in whilst in Future Land Warfare in the early 2000s.
41 This a composite of various ideas, but relies heavily on the definitions and descriptions contained in Strategiya.
42 Fridman, O., 2021, Strategiya.
43 Mona Lisa - Wikipedia Mona Lisa is a half-length portrait painting by Italian artist Leonardo da Vinci. The painting is considered an archetypal masterpiece of the Italian Renaissance.
44 Blue Poles - Wikipedia Blue Poles, also known as Number 11, 1952 is an abstract expressionist painting by American artist Jackson Pollock.
45 Fridman, O., 2021, Strategiya.
47 Events occur within a context, with the participants influenced by their worldviews. The nesting fits neatly.
48 On Wars, Battles, and Military Operations: Defining Success | The Vineyard of the Saker accessed 24/10/2022.
49 Course: Thinking Strategically (2022-S2) (adele.edu.au). Hoffman’s presentation to the class
50 Beyond Ends, Ways, and Means: We Need a Better Strategic Framework to Win in an Era of Great Power Competition - Modern War Institute (usma.edu) accessed 25/01/2023
51 Public Governance, Performance and Accountability Act 2013 (legislation.gov.au) Division 2-The Dictionary…proper, when used in relation to the use or management of public resources, means efficient, effective, economical and ethical.
52 Geoffrey Vickers and appreciative systems - Hiccupedia - Wiki (usask.ca) accessed 25/01/2023
55 OODA loop - Wikipedia The OODA loop has become an important concept in litigation, business, law enforcement, management education, and military strategy.
56 Line Of Effort Definition - Military Planning Terms - MilitaryDictionary JP 5-0 (Joint Operation Planning) In the context of joint operation planning, using the purpose (cause and effect) to focus efforts toward establishing operational and strategic conditions by linking multiple tasks and missions
57 Ideation (creative process) - Wikipedia Ideation is the process of generating, developing, and communicating new ideas. Ideas are understood as a basic element of thought that can be either visual, concrete, or abstract. Ideation comprises the stages of a ‘thought cycle’: innovation, development and actualization.
58 Ten Famous Things Napoleon Bonaparte Never Said (warhistoryonline.com) “Give me lucky generals.” This is another quote that is often attributed to Napoleon, but there is no evidence to suggest he ever said the words. If he did, then as an avid amateur historian he probably based them on something Cardinal Mazarin, chief minister of France in the 17th century, said. Mazarin had noted that one must not ask of a general “Est-il habile?” (“Is he skilful?”), but rather “Est-il heureux?” (“Is he lucky?”)
60 Soft systems methodology - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
61 Fridman, O., (ed), 2021, Strategiya
62 Vickers, G. 1965. The Art of Judgment: A Study of Policy Making (Rethinking Public Administration) republished 1995 by Sage Publications, Inc, ISBN 9780803973633
63 Vickers, G., 1983. Human Systems are Different, SAGE Publications Inc; ISBN 978-0063182622
64 Composite Index of National Capability - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
65 J. David Singer - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
66 Composite Index of National Capability - Wikipedia accessed 01/02/2023
69 Information actions/operations is a euphemism for propaganda Euphemism - Wikipedia
70 Propaganda - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
71 Edward Bernays - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
72 Bernays, E. 1928. Propaganda. New York, Horace Liveright. ISBN 978-0804615112. From L. Tye’s biography, quoted at Wikipedia: ‘It is impossible to fundamentally grasp the social, political, economic and cultural developments of the past 100 years without some understanding of Bernays and his professional heirs in the public relations industry. PR is a 20th-century phenomenon, and Bernays—widely eulogized as the "father of public relations" at the time of his death in 1995—played a major role in defining the industry's philosophy and methods.’
73 Open-source intelligence - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
74 Superforecaster - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 Tetlock, P.E.; Gardner, D 2015. Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.Crown Publishers. ISBN 9780804136693 A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts.
75 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 A Black Swan is the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events. There is a human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb, N.N. 2007. Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. ISBN 978-1400063512
76 Wucker, M. 2016. The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore. St Martin’s Press ISBN 978-1-4668-8700-8. Wucker introduced the term "gray rhino" at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland in January 2013. Unlike highly improbable "black swans" popularized by Taleb, ‘gray rhinos’ are highly probable, high impact yet neglected threats.
77 Cognitive Bias List: Common Types of Bias (verywellmind.com) accessed 25/01/2023
78 Branches and sequels are now embedded in military planning activities. A branch is a deviation, while sequel is a follow on.
79 Order of operations - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 The order of operations or operator precedence is a collection of rules that reflect conventions about which procedures to perform first. The idea applies to many other fields including the military, chemistry, physics and even strategy.
80 Critical path method - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 Critical path and order of operation are similar ideas.
81 Project management - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023
82 Discernment - Wikipedia accessed 25/01/2023 Discernment is the ability to obtain sharp perceptions or to judge well (or the activity of so doing) Discernment in the Christian religion is considered as a virtue, a discerning individual is considered to possess wisdom, and be of good judgement; especially so with regard to subject matter often overlooked by others.