Development of an Algorithm for Calculating the ‘Risk’ of Terrorist CBRN

DL Bolduc


In order to avert a disaster from a terrorist chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attack, it is important to study the likelihood of terrorists using CBRN weapons. This study reports on the development of an algorithm for calculating the ‘risk’ of a terrorist seeking CBRN weaponry with 67.3 percent prediction accuracy. The algorithm was developed through four phases, Phase I proposed independent variables likely associated with Terrorist-CBRN (T-CBRN) derived from literature; Phase II involved constructing a ‘Random Nations Matrix’ from 74 countries for independent variables; Phase III entailed the construction of a multivariate model from the independent variables which met our correlation criteria with T-CBRN; and finally in Phase IV, an algorithm was derived from the model design for calculating the risk of a terrorist seeking, acquiring and or using a CBRN weapon, and the risk of T-CBRN occurring by non-specific terrorists in a specific country.