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Every nation has legitimate security concerns. It is also apparent that people can love their country no matter what kind of country it is. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin held forth on how NATO encroachment eastwards threatens Russia and causes Russia concern. What makes no sense to observers is: who does he think is coveting Russia? Who in their right mind would want to?

Economy

As was highlighted in a recent newspaper report: ‘Russia is the world’s biggest land mass but has annual output smaller than Italy’s. Income a head is about a quarter of that in the UK’. The economy is largely resourced-based (oil, coal, fertiliser, palladium). In the three years leading up to the pandemic it was only expanding by 2per cent a year.

The forecast is not rosy: ‘Growth in Russia is forecast at 2.4 per cent in 2022, on the back of a continually strong oil sector, before slowing down to 1.8 per cent in 2023’.

Demographics

When things are good and the future looks bright, people have babies. What must the conditions on the ground be like for Russia to be in a bit of a demographic death spiral?

Between 1993 and 2008, Russia’s population saw a considerable decline in its population from 148.37 million to 143.25. During this time, Russia experienced low birth rates and abnormally high death rates. Since then, the population has increased again to 145.93 million; however, the population is expected to reach its peak at the end of 2020 and is projected to start declining again.

Russia has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world of 1.58 births per woman, which is also below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman. Russia also has one of the oldest populations in the world with an average age of 40.3 years. Further contributing to Russia’s population decline is a low level of immigration.

While projections into the future of Russia are very difficult, it's estimated that Russia will fall from the 9th most populous country to 17th by 2050...Putin has announced that he plans to boost Russia's dwindling population by encouraging immigration and higher birth rates, but estimates show that Russia's population will drop from 2014's 142 million to only 128 million by 2050.

Again, the forecast here is less than rosy: ‘Russia is about to enter a prolonged and painful period of demographic decline at home’. Not uncoincidentally, running out of young people to fight your wars has military consequences.

Ungovernable

Every father thinks his daughter is beautiful. And, certainly, the Russians have been responsible for many advances in science and mathematics, as well as for great works of literature and music. But would anyone outside of Russia really care to govern the Russians? With all due respect, we are talking about a huge country filled with miserable, jealous, lovable, crazy, emotional, lazy, statist Russians.This particular disturbing tidbit from Russia.com: ‘Russians believe in their mystical luck. Many things (and sometimes most incredible inventions) succeed only because someone believed in a miracle and took an irrational risk. There is a unique Russian perhaps concept, which means maybe it will suddenly work?! and brightly illustrates their mentality. Cold planning and calculations are not for Russian people…’. Nyet, spasibo!

Misgivings aside, let us indulge President Putin’s protective instincts and explore whether or not having evil designs on Russia make any sense. Would an invasion of Russia be worth it … perhaps just to control its natural resources? The answer isn’t just no, but hell no. Perhaps there are a few Texas oil producers who would disagree. Oil is certainly important, but the trend today is anyway to diversify energy sources to renewables, if for no other reason than to combat climate change. And, although Russia’s reserves of oil and gas are large (oil reserves are eighth in the world and in gas reserves they are in an impressive first place), they aren’t indispensable. In fact, with the march towards renewables, Russia becomes less indispensable every day.

And the benefits of being the world’s largest country … come with all the drawbacks of being the world’s largest country. Like China, the country has been held together only by the use of a heavy hand, the repression of ethnic minorities, and a liberal use of military might by the majority. There are some differences with China; Russia is less diverse. Over 80% of the 144 million people in Russia are ethnic Russians. That’s a lot of (ageing) Russians. Although several ethnic minorities have proven problematic for the government, each is relatively small in their share of the overall population and typically outnumbered by ethnic Russians, even in the enclaves named after a particular ethnic group.

It is important to recall that the problem represented by Russia has been faced by the West in the recent past, and no easy solutions were found. In the wake of the USSR’s collapse, Western business people, humanitarians, and investors flowed into Russia, eager to help them make the transition from communist police state to a free-market economic actor. Like Bremer in Iraq, these efforts to help Russia by remaking it in America’s image were unsuccessful. Idealists of the West ran into what appears to be a truism of Russia: Russia’s ‘richness of resources has not translated into an easy life for most of the country’s people, however; indeed, much of Russia’s history has been a grim tale of the very wealthy and powerful few ruling over a great mass of their poor and powerless compatriots’. Turns out that they like a strong central government. Go figure.

The West’s bias towards democracy not only reflects Western values, but also reflects a long-term hope for stability that the West craves (if there is popular support for the Russian state, the need for repression is greatly diminished; also perhaps the need for ‘wag the dog’ foreign adventurism). But there are many undemocratic countries that are successful and decent places. If the spoils from the resource economy were more wildly spread among the population by a Russian government, frankly, the West would be happy for them regardless of the political system used to achieve that result.

My point: after the fall of the Soviet Union, the West already had the opportunity to demonstrate that it has nothing but goodwill towards Russia, awkwardly combined with a profound lack of understanding of how the country works and a fear of unsecured nuclear material. Like anywhere else, what the West wants in Russia is someone who can run the country and that the West can deal with. Someone who can keep the oil and gas flowing. But, overall, the challenge of governing Russia is too big for anyone in the West to want it.

What does Putin think the West wants? There is a psychological phenomenon called ‘mirroring’, where individuals from one culture incorrectly attribute to adversaries from another culture the first culture’s values in the absence of a real understanding of the adversary’s culture. That must be what is happening here. Let me set the record straight, Vlad: no one in America has a fifty-year plan for the eventual Western domination of Russia. We don’t even have any viable five-year plans to rebuild our own bridges and tunnels. We got everything we wanted in the Cold War when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. In Ukraine, the Orange Revolution of 2004-05 and the Maidan ‘Revolution of Dignity’ of 2014 were windfalls. The West didn’t expect that. Free chicken for the folks at the CIA, at best. We certainly aren’t looking for more. The only thing the West wants Russia to do is stop behaving like that guy on steroids at the gym. Good relations (and the removal of sanctions) would also allow Western companies to participate to a greater degree in resource extraction. A win for everyone. Calm the hell down.

I’d wager this: Russia could entirely demobilise its armed forces (keep the border guards and the security services!) and no one from the West would much care. Spend that money on improving the standard of living for the masses of Russian’s across the country who have it so tough. What the latest Russian action has done is simply validate the West’s need to maintain significant armed forces in Europe just to be in a position to box in Russia’s paranoia. Without a Russian military threat (and constant US prodding) we have seen how the EU countries would be perfectly happy spending a smaller and smaller proportion of their national wealth on defence every year. Unilaterally disarm and watch Western defence budgets plummet.

Relax, Vlad. Turns out you are the only one still fighting the Cold War. The West will dance if you want to, but you should know that they are super-reluctant about it. To be honest, you should probably be more worried about China. It’s kinda obvious that you guys aren’t really friends.

Biography

Major Garri Benjamin Hendell is a cavalryman and a drilling reservist in the U.S. Army’s Army National Guard. He has served in leadership and staff positions at the platoon, company, battalion, and division levels, as well as having been assigned to a regional joint force headquarters and to the National Guard Bureau (a federal entity which manages the Army National Guard formations within each U.S. State). He has deployed overseas three times to the Middle East as well as participated in training events in Europe. He writes sometimes and does civilian things too.

The views expressed in this opinion piece are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Forge, The Department of Defence or the Australian Government.

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(Hendell, 2022)
Hendell, G. 2022. 'Relax Vlad, Nobody Covets Russia'. Available at: https://theforge.defence.gov.au/article/relax-vlad-nobody-covets-russia (Accessed: 30 January 2025).
(Hendell, 2022)
Hendell, G. 2022. 'Relax Vlad, Nobody Covets Russia'. Available at: https://theforge.defence.gov.au/article/relax-vlad-nobody-covets-russia (Accessed: 30 January 2025).
Garri Hendell, "Relax Vlad, Nobody Covets Russia", The Forge, Published: April 12, 2022, https://theforge.defence.gov.au/article/relax-vlad-nobody-covets-russia. (accessed January 30, 2025).
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