In the 2025 Grey Oration, Dr Florence Gaub examines how NATO understands the future by returning to the language, assumptions, and anxieties that shaped its origins—and by confronting the strategic pressures now reshaping the Alliance.

Blending historical analysis with strategic foresight, the Oration explores NATO not simply as an organisation, but as a long-term political and military promise: a commitment whose credibility rests on trust, perception, and intent as much as capability. Dr Gaub revisits foundational ideas such as deterrence, reassurance, and collective defence, interrogating how their meanings have evolved since 1949 and how they are applied today.

The address traces NATO’s shifting threat perceptions—from the Cold War, through crisis management and counter-terrorism, to renewed concern with Russia, the rise of China, and emerging risks in the Arctic. It also highlights the growing role of foresight, uncertainty, and “fringe futures” in Alliance planning, arguing that NATO’s persistent state of doubt is not a weakness but a defining feature.

This Oration will be of interest to those engaged in alliance strategy, strategic communication, and long-range defence thinking.